Brazil's betting ban is repeating India's: Blask data shows 63% of Indian players kept betting offshore after theirs

New Blask research compares Brazil's ban, which took effect today, with India's August 2025 ban. In both countries the legal market disappeared, but the demand did not.

Brazil's online betting market went dark, and Blask has published a study of what comes next, based on the precedent that exists: India's real-money gaming ban of August 2025.

Blask, an AI-native iGaming analytics platform, followed the same Indian internet users before and after that ban, using Brazil as a control market, then tracked Brazil's own first week after President Lula signed Provisional Measure 1.394 on 25 September.

In India, domestic real-money sites lost 73% of their reach within three months, yet 63% of the players who had used them were still betting, 61 of every 100 on offshore sites. In Brazil, licensed-site visits fell 74% below normal in six days.

Blask measured behaviour directly, through an opt-in panel of 13,700 to 111,000 people in India and 25,000 to 72,000 in Brazil who agreed to share browsing data.

The core comparison uses a fixed cohort: every panelist seen on at least five days both before India's ban (1 June to 19 August 2025) and after it (1 September to 30 November 2025). That is 19,924 people in India and 31,785 in Brazil. Because the panel grew roughly eightfold in India and threefold in Brazil over the period, every trend in the report is either indexed to Brazil or measured on the same fixed group of people.

3 findings carried across both markets:

• Offshore use did not fall. Indian panellists who had only ever used offshore sites kept betting at 59.8% after the ban, against 59.0% for the equivalent Brazilian group with no ban at all. India blocked 8,376 URLs over the period and offshore reach held level with the control.

• Acquisition moved to channels nobody audits. Search engines' share of visits into India's offshore operators fell from 16% to 8%. Pop-under ad networks, redirect trackers and pirate streaming sites rose from 21% to 41%.

• Brazil is moving faster. By Thursday 1 October, six days after the measure, the share of Blask's Brazilian panel visiting a licensed site was 74% below normal. India took three months to reach a comparable point. Brazil bans the same products offshore operators already sell, so Brazilian players need a new address rather than a new product.

What Brazil's first week adds

India took three months to settle. Brazil's first six days already show the same pattern, in a different order.

• The legal side collapsed first. Branded search for Brazilian-licensed operators fell 82% below normal by 2 October, against 17% for offshore brands. Betano, Sportingbet and Superbet were each down 85 to 88%. The offshore share of branded search rose from 4% to 16%, which is the licensed side shrinking rather than offshore growing.
  

• The black market has not filled the gap yet, and the pipeline is ready. Reach to unlicensed sites stayed within 11% of normal on every day of the week. Of 5,970 players who had used only licensed sites, a third stopped using them and 6.7% tried an unlicensed site, against 5.1% in a normal week. Meanwhile an industry monitor counted 6,401 new illegal betting sites in a single week, and the government asked for 5,209 betting domains to be taken down in the first five days.
  

• Players who switched went to familiar names. 1win was the biggest offshore destination in Blask's Brazilian panel, with 722 panellists, reached mostly through numbered mirror domains that do not carry its name. Brazil-licensed brands' own international sites, which are unlicensed in Brazil, drew more Brazilians too: stake.com 271 panellists in the first week, up from 78.
  
  

• Most Brazilian bettors were already one click from the black market. 57% had visited an unlicensed site in the 90 days before the ban. 
  

The full report is free to download via the link: https://blask.com/reports/brazil-market-ban/

About Blask. Blask is an AI-native iGaming analytics platform. It provides independent market intelligence on iGaming markets: brand demand, market size estimates, competitive positioning and momentum, acquisition benchmarks and revenue baselines across 140+ markets. Blask figures are modelled and do not replace operator-reported financials or regulator disclosures.